“I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.
“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big – we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding, “It takes a little time.”
Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked on Sunday about the possibility of a recession.
“Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.
Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring.
Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.
Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers – already battered by years of inflation – brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.
And widespread government lay-offs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.
When asked later on Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there could be a recession, Trump told reports on Air Force One “Who knows?”
Overall, the signs are mixed.
A widely-watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 percent to 20 percent.
And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.
Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth.
The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs. (AFP)
