Trump has imposed steep levies on China, and lower “baseline” levies of 10 percent on goods from most other countries, along with 25 percent duties on specific items like steel, automobiles and aluminium.
The president has also paused higher duties on dozens of other trading partners until July to give them time to renegotiate existing arrangements with the United States.
Most economists expect the tariffs introduced since January to push up prices and cool economic growth – at least in the short run – potentially keeping the Fed on hold for longer.
“The Fed has to be very focused on maintaining inflation so that it doesn’t start moving back up in a more persistent way,” said Loretta Mester, who recently stepped down after a decade as president of the Cleveland Fed.
“That would undermine all the work that was done over the last three years of getting inflation down,” she said.
The Fed has held its key interest rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent since December, as it continues its plan to bring inflation to the bank’s long-term target of two percent, with another eye firmly fixed on keeping unemployment under control.
Recent data points to inflation hitting that target ahead of the introduction of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, while unemployment has remained relatively stable, hugging close to historic lows.
At the same time, various “softer” data points such as consumer confidence surveys have pointed to a sharp decline in optimism about the health of the US economy – and growing concerns about inflation.
“Whether the economy enters a recession or not, it’s hard to say at this point,” said Mester, now an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
“I think the committee remains in good condition here, and most likely they’ll remain on hold at this meeting,” said Jim Bullard, the long-serving former president of the St Louis Fed.
“I think it’s a good place for them to be while there’s a lot of turbulence in the trade war,” added Bullard, now dean of the Daniels School of Business at Purdue University.
Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to announce another rate cut pause on Wednesday, according to data from CME Group. (AFP)
