Le Pen could garner a third of the vote on April 18, 2027 in the first round to replace centrist President Emmanuel Macron, results from the Ipsos-BVA survey showed on Sunday.
Polls in recent months have shown Le Pen as the front-runner but this survey of 13,060 people, conducted earlier this month, is unusually large in scale.
Centrist contender Edouard Philippe would face Le Pen in the run-off on May 2, but only if his rival from the same camp Gabriel Attal steps down, according to results published in Le Monde daily.
But if both Macron’s former prime ministers stay in the race, splitting the centrist vote, hard-left hopeful Jean-Luc Melenchon would be runner-up and make it to the decisive second round, it suggested, after testing several scenarios.
Brice Teinturier of Ipsos-BVA said a negative mindset was increasingly prevalent among voters, with many worried about France’s public finances and the cost of living.
Almost three-quarters of respondents believed the country’s situation is about to “deteriorate”, compared to just 45 percent before the last presidential elections in 2022 that saw Macron re-elected for a second and last term.
“Out of 13 feelings offered to describe their state of mind, 91 percent of respondents mention at least one negative thought, and 68 percent mention only negative feelings: worry, uncertainty, tiredness, anger, revolt, anxiety, depression,” Teinturier wrote in Le Monde.
“Never has the demand for radicalness and change been so strong,” he said.
Le Pen has decided to run despite an appeals court in July upholding a graft conviction against her.
After coming third in the 2012 presidential polls, she made the run-off in 2017 and 2022 but lost both times to Macron after a call to voters to rally to prevent the far right from coming to power. (AFP)
