Ho Lok-sang, adjunct professor with the Academy for Applied Policy Studies and Education Futures at the Education University of Hong Kong, made the assessment as advance estimates showed Hong Kong’s economy grew 5.2 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2026.
The clearest sign of recovery, he said, was in prime office space.
“Especially for the Grade A centrally located locations, [the] office take-up rate is pretty impressive,” he said. “Now, certainly it’s recovering.”
But Ho stressed that the strength is not spreading beyond that segment.
“On the outside of the Grade A and centrally located areas, office demand is still relatively weak, and the demand for commercial properties is still relatively weak,” he said.
He added that a broader recovery will not come quickly and will likely depend on lower rents.
“I think that it will take quite some time to recover, and I think recovery will also necessitate a decline in rents,” Ho said.
Ho was more upbeat about the rest of the year’s outlook.
“Definitely the full year growth is going to be quite strong, and I am pretty confident that it will be over four percent or could be as much as 4.5 percent,” he said.
The government’s real GDP growth forecast for 2026 as a whole is 3.5 to 4.5 percent.
Ho said the financial sector is performing “pretty well, extremely well”, with IPOs still at a very high level and “no sign of it ebbing”.
He added that exports, too, are “doing quite well”.
But he flagged persistent weak spots: “Demand in terms of both construction demand and also the retail consumption demand and restaurant business are still lagging behind”.
To support these sectors, Ho pointed to major events and tourism.
“Of course the major events – for example concerts and Halloween and so on – it’s entirely possible to boost tourism even more,” he said.
“Tourism is doing pretty well this year, and we hope that the tourists can stay a bit longer and consume a bit more.”
Ho said that outcome depends on the business sector and the government continuing to promote such major events.
Meanwhile, Kenny Shui, vice president of Our Hong Kong Foundation, said the third-quarter figures pointed to strengthening momentum: goods exports rose 30.4 percent on AI and electronics demand, while services exports grew 4.3 percent on tourism and financial activity.
But he said private consumption rose just 2.8 percent, slower than the previous quarter, showing that the strength in retail and investment has yet to fully reach households.
“Growth momentum is broadening, but the recovery still needs to be felt more widely,” Shui said.
With first-nine-month growth at 5.1 percent, Shui expects a fourth-quarter growth of four to five percent and full-year growth of around five percent – above the government’s forecast, leaving room for an upward revision.
He cautioned, however, that interest rates could weigh on business investment and household spending, and with unemployment at 3.9 percent, consumption still needs job and income support.
In the fourth quarter, the key will be whether exports stay strong and consumption and employment improve, Shui added.
