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Real estate recovery drives growth forecast higher: FS

Purton by Purton
3 November 2026
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Financial Secretary Paul Chan on Tuesday said all three drivers of economic growth performed well in the third quarter, with consumption, investment, and exports all recording growth to varying degrees.

Hong Kong’s advance estimates for the third-quarter GDP are set to be released later in the day.

The financial chief had announced over the weekend that the city’s full-year economic growth forecast will be revised upwards following a stronger-than-expected 5.1 percent GDP growth in the first half of the year.

Chan said other factors also supported the projection, noting that full-year visitor arrivals are likely to exceed the target of 50 million and that the real estate market is improving.

“The residential property market has been on the rise since the latter half of last year. Last year, the increase was approximately three percent, while the rise this year has been between seven and 10 percent. In the residential property market, it’s fair to say we are moving into a stage of steady ascent.” he said.

“In commercial real estate, we have observed significant improvements in office rentals, in terms of rental prices and vacancy rates, particularly in central business districts. It has also stabilised in other districts.”

An expected influx of visitors towards the end of the year will also have a positive impact on the retail and catering sectors, Chan added.

While certain industries, such as construction, catering, and retail, are facing more pressure with higher jobless rates, Chan stressed that the overall employment situation is stable, with unemployment standing at around 3.9 percent.

In predicting next year’s economic growth, Chan stressed that government economists are currently assessing the impact of several key factors.

These, he said, include expected high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties like fluctuating oil prices driven by Middle East wars, upcoming elections in major economies, and the reallocation of international funds.

Tags: Hong Konglocal
Purton

Purton

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