The AfD won 44.4 percent of the vote, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives trailing well behind on 18.3 percent, and the centre-left Social Democrats and environmental Greens both clearing the minimum threshold to enter parliament, according to an exit poll from the ARD broadcaster.
As counting continued, it remained unclear whether the AfD had secured enough votes to win an absolute majority in parliament.
But the wider political significance of the election, which saw turnout over 80 percent, according to the ZDF broadcaster, was clear.
“We have made history in this country,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old AfD lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, who drew thousands to his campaign rallies and who repeatedly cast victory in the state as a first step towards securing national power in federal elections due in 2029.
His party wants to heavily restrict immigration, restore ties with Russia, quit the euro and promote unashamed German patriotism.
The result marks a significant setback for Merz, who has seen his personal approval rating sink to historic lows as voters have turned away both from his planned reforms to revive Germany’s sluggish economy and his own gaffe-prone personal communication style.
The AfD party’s co-leader Alice Weidel hailed an “historic” result which had given the AfD a clear mandate to govern, but a protracted period of coalition building could be needed before a clear majority is formed.
The mainstream parties have all refused to work with the AfD, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by the local office of Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
But it may find a partner in the far-left BSW party, if it manages to clear the threshold to enter parliament.
Although Saxony-Anhalt, formerly part of Communist-run East Germany, is one of the smaller German states, with a population of just over two million, the result underlines the rapid advance of the AfD since it was created in 2013.
In a fracturing political landscape, the AfD is now Germany’s most popular party nationally, polling at 28 percent according to a recent INSA poll, comfortably ahead of the conservatives on 20 percent.
The party is particularly popular in eastern Germany.
But it won around 20 percent in the western states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate earlier in the year, underlining its growing national appeal.
While hard right parties have gained ground elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s Nazi past has contributed to a reluctance among mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD.
The AfD has dismissed accusations of extremism as scaremongering and an insult to the party’s millions of supporters.
During the campaign, the AfD tapped into growing disillusionment with established parties, which it characterises as tired and out of touch, offering instead a range of hardline policies and a nostalgic vision of a return to cleaner and safer streets and taking pride in being German.
Its programme includes plans to push schools and cultural institutions towards more traditional values, curb immigration and overhaul public broadcasting.
It wants the children of refugees to be taught in segregated classes.
Rainbow flags in schools would be banned; instead the German national flag would be hoisted every day.
The national anthem would be sung by students and staff at school celebrations.
Other proposals include citizen patrols, more teaching of Russian in schools and a halt on building new wind farms.
Thorsten Frei, the faction chief of the conservatives in parliament, dismissed suggestions that Merz’s position was under threat, though Merz’s own approval rating is particularly weak.
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said voters were sending a signal to Berlin.
Polling on the ARD broadcaster showed those voters who had deserted Merz’s conservatives felt the party had not delivered on its promises, while 87 percent of the state’s voters overall were unhappy with the federal government.