Experts said that the forecast-smashing 8.1 percent rise indicated that Beijing was re-routing trade to Southeast Asia to mitigate US tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese imports imposed by US President Donald Trump.
Trade between the world’s two largest economies has slumped since Trump imposed the tariffs and China responded with levies of 125 percent and other measures.
The year-on-year increase in exports of 8.1 percent in April was much higher than the 2 percent forecast by analysts in a poll last month.
The data from the Chinese customs bureau showed exports to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam surged by double digits, in what one analyst called a “structural repositioning” of trade.
“The global supply chain is being rerouted in real time,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management wrote in a note.
“Vietnam looks set to become China’s offshore escape hatch for US-facing goods,” he said.
“The manufacturing juggernaut is diverting flow wherever the tariff pain isn’t.”
Month-on-month exports to the United States plunged 17.6 percent.
Analysts at ANZ Research said the data revealed “it is difficult to exclude China from the global supply chain in the short term, considering China’s role in manufacturing.”
“The implied supply chain realignment as well as the expected outcome of Asia-US trade talks suggests no imminent collapse in China exports,” they added.
Global markets have been on a roller-coaster since Trump began his tariff offensive which according to the White House was aimed at bringing back manufacturing to the United States.
While Trump has suspended for 90 days many of the most painful levies, those on China have remained in place.
Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, also attributed the forecast-beating exports to transshipment through other countries.
But he also cited potential trade contracts that were signed before the tariffs were announced.
“I expect trade data will weaken in the next few months.”
Imports were also being closely watched as a key gauge of consumer demand in China, which has remained sluggish.
They also beat expectations, dropping 0.2 percent, compared with the 6 percent slide analysts had estimated. (AFP)
