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Oil retreats, stocks rise on cautious Iran war hopes

Xenia. W by Xenia. W
20 May 2026
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Stock markets jumped on Wednesday while oil prices fell with bond yields after US President Donald Trump said American negotiators were close to a potential peace accord with Iran.

Crude prices had earlier been pressured by Iranian statements that it had allowed around two dozen ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

But oil fell further and stocks rose more following Trump’s statements in the late morning about the state of play between Tehran and Washington, despite their similarity to earlier Trump utterances suggesting an imminent deal that didn’t materialise.

“We’re in the final stages of Iran, we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty. But hopefully that won’t happen.”

Later on Wednesday, Trump described talks with Iran as “on the borderline” between a deal to end the Middle East war and a resumption of strikes on Iran.

All three major US indices powered higher, with the Dow gaining 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq 1.5 percent.

Oil prices slid more than five percent while yields on the 30-year US Treasury bond retreated from Tuesday’s 19-year peak.

“We’ve been hearing about negotiations for two months, so investors are taking President Trump’s rhetoric with a cautious tone,” said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital.

Ablin said Wednesday’s gains were also fuelled by positive results from big-box retailers such as Target, as well as anticipation of earnings later on Wednesday from chip giant Nvidia.

While Asian markets mostly fell in the wake of losses on Wall Street on Tuesday, European indexes gained as bond yields fell back from inflation-driven highs.

Oil prices were also under pressure, with the main US contract, WTI, falling under US$100 per barrel, but sticking well above pre-war levels.

Earlier on Wednesday, a South Korea-flagged tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz, one of 26 that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later said it had allowed to pass over the past 24 hours.

Since the United States and Israel began their war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz – an energy corridor through which 20 percent of global crude usually transits — has been effectively closed to shipping.

“Oil remains the central macro pressure point,” said Sucden Financial analyst Viktoria Kuszak.

A majority of US Federal Reserve policymakers indicated that interest rate hikes could be needed if inflation continued to run persistently above the central bank’s two-percent target, according to minutes of their last meeting.

The Nasdaq rose 1.6 percent, to 26,270, the Dow rose 1.3 percent, to 50,009, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent, to 7,432. (AFP)

Tags: BusinessFinance
Xenia. W

Xenia. W

Xenia is a Hong Kong–based writer and content creator focusing on financial markets, policy and the city’s evolving economic landscape. With over ten years of experience in higher education and tourism‑related projects, she specialises in transforming complex information into clear, reader‑friendly insights for both professional and general audiences. ​ Drawing on a background in bilingual Chinese–English translation and editing, Xenia writes across topics including Hong Kong and US stocks, market structure, macro trends and how policy shifts affect everyday investors.

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